Model value
Miami DolphinsValue pick
35%
Model estimate
35%Market implied
New York JetsLikelier to win
65%
Model estimate
65%Market implied
The pick
Pick locked at+205FanDuelThis price grades the pick
Live oddsClosedGame has started
Odds as of Oct 21, 2026, 10:24 AM ET, when the pick was locked. Live odds close at kickoff.
ModelAt lock: 33%
MarketAt lock: 33%
Value pick: Miami Dolphins. Estimated value +2.1% at the locked price (value bar: +2%).
Saved Oct 21, 2026, 10:24 AM ET. Locked picks are never edited or deleted.
Final result
Result
Win
MIA 28 - NYJ 25
Units
+2.05u
1 flat unit at the locked price
Closing-line value
+5.7%
locked price vs the last pre-kickoff line
1 unit = your standard bet. Example: +2.05u is +$20.50 at $10 per bet.
Odds history
- Oct 21, 2026, 10:24 AM ET: pick locked at +205 (FanDuel), model 33%, market 33%.
- Last pre-kickoff check (check 9): market-implied 34.6% for the pick.
| Saved | Miami Dolphins best odds | New York Jets best odds | Model (New York Jets) | Market (New York Jets) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +185 | -200 | 65% | 65% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Oct 25, 2026, 11:00 AM ET.
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: NYJ 1381 vs MIA 1373 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Rest: MIA has 7 more days of rest.
- Last 4 games, average margin: NYJ -5.0, MIA -12.0.
- Model estimate: NYJ 65% / MIA 35%. Market (vig removed): NYJ 65% / MIA 35%.
- MIA at +205 has an estimated value of +2.1%, above the minimum bar for a pick.
- Spread: New York Jets -3.5 · Total 39.5 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- Listed quarterbacks: Malik Willis (MIA) vs Geno Smith (NYJ). Source data may be out of date.
- Jets-Dolphins Game Preview | 'We’re Right at the Cusp of It’
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for NFL: +2% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.