Model value
New England PatriotsUnderdog pick
42%
Model estimate
41%Market implied
Chicago BearsLikelier to win
58%
Model estimate
59%Market implied
The pick
Pick locked at+141LowVig.agThis price grades the pick
Live oddsClosedGame has started
Odds as of Oct 21, 2026, 10:24 AM ET, when the pick was locked. Live odds close at kickoff.
ModelAt lock: 42%
MarketAt lock: 41%
Model pick: New England Patriots (Underdog). At the locked price the estimated value is +1.7%, below the +2% value bar, so it is not a value pick.
Saved Oct 21, 2026, 10:24 AM ET. Locked picks are never edited or deleted.
Final result
Result
Loss
NE 24 - CHI 30
Units
-1.00u
1 flat unit at the locked price
Closing-line value
-1.4%
locked price vs the last pre-kickoff line
1 unit = your standard bet. Example: -1.00u is -$10.00 at $10 per bet.
Odds history
- Oct 21, 2026, 10:24 AM ET: pick locked at +141 (LowVig.ag), model 42%, market 41%.
- Last pre-kickoff check (check 3): market-implied 40.9% for the pick.
No odds snapshots were saved for this game (it was logged before history tracking started). Snapshots are saved each time the model runs, so later games build a full history.
Value bar for NFL: +2% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.