Model value
New York Giants
20%
Model estimate
20%Market implied
Houston TexansModel pick
80%
Model estimate
80%Market implied
The pick
Pick locked at-480BetUSThis price grades the pick
Live oddsClosedGame has started
Odds as of Oct 24, 2026, 10:40 AM ET, when the pick was locked. Live odds close at kickoff.
ModelAt lock: 80%
MarketAt lock: 80%
Model pick: Houston Texans (Strong). At the locked price the estimated value is -3.4%, below the +2% value bar, so it is not a value pick.
Saved Oct 24, 2026, 10:40 AM ET. Locked picks are never edited or deleted.
Final result
Result
Loss
NYG 27 - HOU 21
Units
-1.00u
1 flat unit at the locked price
Closing-line value
-3.5%
locked price vs the last pre-kickoff line
1 unit = your standard bet. Example: -1.00u is -$10.00 at $10 per bet.
Odds history
- Oct 24, 2026, 10:40 AM ET: pick locked at -480 (BetUS), model 80%, market 80%.
- Last pre-kickoff check (check 3): market-implied 79.8% for the pick.
| Saved | New York Giants best odds | Houston Texans best odds | Model (Houston Texans) | Market (Houston Texans) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +400 | -470 | 80% | 80% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Oct 25, 2026, 11:00 AM ET.
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: HOU 1547 vs NYG 1434 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Last 4 games, average margin: HOU +5.0, NYG +2.5.
- Model estimate: HOU 80% / NYG 20%. Market (vig removed): HOU 80% / NYG 20%.
- Spread: Houston Texans -10.5 · Total 42.5 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- Listed quarterbacks: J.J. McCarthy (NYG) vs C.J. Stroud (HOU). Source data may be out of date.
- Texans vs. Giants Prediction, Odds, Pick for NFL Week 7
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for NFL: +2% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.