Model value
Pittsburgh SteelersModel pick
62%
Model estimate
60%Market implied
New Orleans Saints
38%
Model estimate
40%Market implied
The pick
Pick locked at-162DraftKingsThis price grades the pick
Live oddsClosedGame has started
Odds as of Oct 24, 2026, 10:40 AM ET, when the pick was locked. Live odds close at kickoff.
ModelAt lock: 62%
MarketAt lock: 60%
Model pick: Pittsburgh Steelers (Lean). At the locked price the estimated value is +0.7%, below the +2% value bar, so it is not a value pick.
Saved Oct 24, 2026, 10:40 AM ET. Locked picks are never edited or deleted.
Final result
Result
Win
PIT 16 - NO 10
Units
+0.62u
1 flat unit at the locked price
Closing-line value
-2.5%
locked price vs the last pre-kickoff line
1 unit = your standard bet. Example: +0.62u is +$6.17 at $10 per bet.
Odds history
- Oct 24, 2026, 10:40 AM ET: pick locked at -162 (DraftKings), model 62%, market 60%.
- Last pre-kickoff check (check 2): market-implied 60.3% for the pick.
No odds snapshots were saved for this game (it was logged before history tracking started). Snapshots are saved each time the model runs, so later games build a full history.
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: NO 1425 vs PIT 1545 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Last 4 games, average margin: NO -8.0, PIT +4.8.
- Model estimate: NO 36% / PIT 64%. Market (vig removed): NO 38% / PIT 62%.
- Spread: New Orleans Saints +3 · Total 43.5 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- Listed quarterbacks: Aaron Rodgers (PIT) vs Tyler Shough (NO). Source data may be out of date.
- How to Watch Steelers vs. Saints: TV Channel and Streaming Options for October 25
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for NFL: +2% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.