Model value
San Francisco 49ersValue pick
60%
Model estimate
57%Market implied
Atlanta Falcons
40%
Model estimate
43%Market implied
The pick
Pick locked at-165BetUSThis price grades the pick
Live oddsClosedGame has started
Odds as of Oct 20, 2026, 10:19 PM ET, when the pick was locked. Live odds close at kickoff.
ModelAt lock: 64%
MarketAt lock: 61%
Value pick: San Francisco 49ers. Estimated value +3.0% at the locked price (value bar: +2%).
Saved Oct 20, 2026, 10:19 PM ET. Locked picks are never edited or deleted.
Final result
Result
Loss
SF 20 - ATL 29
Units
-1.00u
1 flat unit at the locked price
Closing-line value
-8.8%
locked price vs the last pre-kickoff line
1 unit = your standard bet. Example: -1.00u is -$10.00 at $10 per bet.
Odds history
- Oct 20, 2026, 10:19 PM ET: pick locked at -165 (BetUS), model 64%, market 61%.
- Last pre-kickoff check (check 10): market-implied 56.8% for the pick.
| Saved | San Francisco 49ers best odds | Atlanta Falcons best odds | Model (Atlanta Falcons) | Market (Atlanta Falcons) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | -140 | +126 | 40% | 43% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Oct 25, 2026, 11:00 AM ET.
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: ATL 1454 vs SF 1659 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Last 4 games, average margin: ATL +6.8, SF +6.2.
- Model estimate: ATL 40% / SF 60%. Market (vig removed): ATL 43% / SF 57%.
- SF at -165 has an estimated value of +3.0%, above the minimum bar for a pick.
- Spread: Atlanta Falcons +2.5 · Total 50.5 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- Listed quarterbacks: Brock Purdy (SF) vs Michael Penix Jr. (ATL). Source data may be out of date.
- Falcons vs. 49Ers Prediction, Odds, Pick for NFL Week 7
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for NFL: +2% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.