Model value
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
41%
Model estimate
41%Market implied
Carolina PanthersModel pick
59%
Model estimate
59%Market implied
The pick
Pick locked at-148BetOnline.agThis price grades the pick
Live oddsClosedGame has started
Odds as of Oct 24, 2026, 10:40 AM ET, when the pick was locked. Live odds close at kickoff.
ModelAt lock: 58%
MarketAt lock: 58%
Model pick: Carolina Panthers (Lean). At the locked price the estimated value is -2.2%, below the +2% value bar, so it is not a value pick.
Saved Oct 24, 2026, 10:40 AM ET. Locked picks are never edited or deleted.
Final result
Result
Loss
TB 43 - CAR 13
Units
-1.00u
1 flat unit at the locked price
Closing-line value
-1.2%
locked price vs the last pre-kickoff line
1 unit = your standard bet. Example: -1.00u is -$10.00 at $10 per bet.
Odds history
- Oct 24, 2026, 10:40 AM ET: pick locked at -148 (BetOnline.ag), model 58%, market 58%.
- Last pre-kickoff check (check 3): market-implied 59.0% for the pick.
| Saved | Tampa Bay Buccaneers best odds | Carolina Panthers best odds | Model (Carolina Panthers) | Market (Carolina Panthers) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +140 | -150 | 59% | 59% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Oct 25, 2026, 11:00 AM ET.
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: CAR 1499 vs TB 1427 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Last 4 games, average margin: CAR +11.2, TB -2.2.
- Model estimate: CAR 59% / TB 41%. Market (vig removed): CAR 59% / TB 41%.
- Spread: Carolina Panthers -3 · Total 44.5 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- Listed quarterbacks: Jalon Daniels (TB) vs Bryce Young (CAR). Source data may be out of date.
- 5 Things to Watch as the Panthers Welcome the Bucs for Divisional Matchup
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for NFL: +2% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.