Model value
The pick
Not locked yet. The price available at lock time (about 36 hours before kickoff, or sooner if it becomes a value pick) is the one that grades the pick.
Odds as of Oct 27, 2026, 8:00 AM ET
Model pick: Atlanta Falcons (Underdog). At the current price the estimated value is +0.8%, below the +2% value bar, so it is not a value pick.
Final result
Not graded yet. The final score and result appear here after the game, graded at the locked price.
Odds history
| Saved | Atlanta Falcons best odds | Tampa Bay Buccaneers best odds | Model (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) | Market (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +118 | -125 | 54% | 55% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Oct 27, 2026, 8:00 AM ET.
Buccaneers' Next Game: Critical Division Play Continues with Falcons Visit · Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Oct 26, 2026
Falcons vs Buccaneers Picks, Predictions, Odds for NFL Week 8 Game · azcentral.com and The Arizona Republic, Oct 26, 2026
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: TB 1476 vs ATL 1489 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Last 4 games, average margin: TB +7.0, ATL +3.8.
- Model estimate: TB 54% / ATL 46%. Market (vig removed): TB 55% / ATL 45%.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 · Total 46.5 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- Listed quarterbacks: Michael Penix Jr. (ATL) vs Baker Mayfield (TB). Source data may be out of date.
- No players listed Out, Doubtful or Questionable on the latest official report (it may not be posted yet).
- Falcons vs. Bucs Odds: Opening Lines for Week 8 Matchup
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for NFL: +2% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.