Model value
The pick
Not locked yet. The price available at lock time (about 36 hours before kickoff, or sooner if it becomes a value pick) is the one that grades the pick.
Odds as of Oct 27, 2026, 8:00 AM ET
Model pick: Kansas City Chiefs (Toss-up). At the current price the estimated value is -2.9%, below the +2% value bar, so it is not a value pick.
Final result
Not graded yet. The final score and result appear here after the game, graded at the locked price.
Odds history
| Saved | Kansas City Chiefs best odds | Denver Broncos best odds | Model (Denver Broncos) | Market (Denver Broncos) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | -120 | +105 | 47% | 47% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Oct 27, 2026, 8:00 AM ET.
Denver Broncos – Kansas City Chiefs Week 8 Game Unlikely to Be Flexed to SNF · Mile High Sports, Oct 20, 2026
Chiefs vs Broncos Picks, Predictions, Odds for NFL Week 8 Game Sunday · azcentral.com and The Arizona Republic, Oct 26, 2026
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: DEN 1627 vs KC 1565 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Last 4 games, average margin: DEN +3.2, KC +4.0.
- Model estimate: DEN 47% / KC 53%. Market (vig removed): DEN 47% / KC 53%.
- Spread: Denver Broncos +1.5 · Total 41.5 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- Listed quarterbacks: Patrick Mahomes (KC) vs Bo Nix (DEN). Source data may be out of date.
- No players listed Out, Doubtful or Questionable on the latest official report (it may not be posted yet).
- NFL Odds: Broncos Are Home Underdogs vs. Chiefs This Week
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for NFL: +2% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.