Model value
The pick
Not locked yet. The price available at lock time (about 36 hours before kickoff, or sooner if it becomes a value pick) is the one that grades the pick.
Odds as of Nov 4, 2026, 8:00 AM ET
Model lean: Buffalo Bills (Lean). At the current price the estimated value is -0.2%. Value labels are switched off while the model has not beaten the betting market, so this is a lean, not a value pick.
Final result
Not graded yet. The final score and result appear here after the game, graded at the locked price.
Odds history
| Saved | Buffalo Bills best odds | Minnesota Vikings best odds | Model (Minnesota Vikings) | Market (Minnesota Vikings) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | -172 | +158 | 37% | 38% |
| Nov 3, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | -172 | +158 | 37% | 38% |
| Nov 3, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | -172 | +158 | 37% | 38% |
| Nov 4, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | -174 | +158 | 37% | 38% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Nov 3, 2026, 8:00 AM ET.
Bills to Face a Vikings Defense Unlike Any They Have Seen This Season · Democrat and Chronicle, Nov 2, 2026
Bills vs Vikings Picks, Predictions, Odds for NFL Week 9 Game Monday · azcentral.com and The Arizona Republic, Nov 2, 2026
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: MIN 1619 vs BUF 1669 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Last 4 games, average margin: MIN +4.2, BUF +7.2.
- Model alone: MIN 44% / BUF 56%. Final estimate (model blended with the market): MIN 37% / BUF 63%. Market (vig removed): MIN 38% / BUF 62%.
- Spread: Minnesota Vikings +3.5 · Total 45.5 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- Listed quarterbacks: Josh Allen (BUF) vs Kyler Murray (MIN). Source data may be out of date.
- No players listed Out, Doubtful or Questionable on the latest official report (it may not be posted yet).
- 2026 NFL Week 9: Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for NFL: +2% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.