Model value
The pick
Not locked yet. The price available at lock time (about 36 hours before kickoff, or sooner if it becomes a value pick) is the one that grades the pick.
Odds as of Nov 4, 2026, 8:00 AM ET
Model lean: Cincinnati Bengals (Lean). At the current price the estimated value is +2.1%. Value labels are switched off while the model has not beaten the betting market, so this is a lean, not a value pick.
Final result
Not graded yet. The final score and result appear here after the game, graded at the locked price.
Odds history
| Saved | Cincinnati Bengals best odds | Atlanta Falcons best odds | Model (Atlanta Falcons) | Market (Atlanta Falcons) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | -160 | +150 | 38% | 40% |
| Nov 3, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | -160 | +142 | 38% | 40% |
| Nov 3, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | -162 | +145 | 38% | 40% |
| Nov 4, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | -155 | +143 | 38% | 40% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Nov 3, 2026, 8:00 AM ET.
How to Watch Bengals at Falcons Week 9 in Madrid: TV, Streaming and Radio Information · Cincinnati Bengals, Nov 3, 2026
Bengals vs Falcons Picks, Predictions, Odds for NFL Week 9 Game Sunday · azcentral.com and The Arizona Republic, Nov 2, 2026
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: ATL 1464 vs CIN 1571 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Last 4 games, average margin: ATL -5.5, CIN +7.8.
- Model alone: ATL 35% / CIN 65%. Final estimate (model blended with the market): ATL 38% / CIN 62%. Market (vig removed): ATL 40% / CIN 60%.
- Spread: Atlanta Falcons +3 · Total 52.5 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- Listed quarterbacks: Joe Burrow (CIN) vs Michael Penix Jr. (ATL). Source data may be out of date.
- No players listed Out, Doubtful or Questionable on the latest official report (it may not be posted yet).
- Where Bengals, Falcons Sit in NFL Power Rankings Before Madrid Game
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for NFL: +2% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.