Model value
The pick
Not locked yet. The price available at lock time (about 36 hours before kickoff, or sooner if it becomes a value pick) is the one that grades the pick.
Odds as of Nov 4, 2026, 8:00 AM ET
Model lean: Green Bay Packers (Underdog). At the current price the estimated value is +0.1%. Value labels are switched off while the model has not beaten the betting market, so this is a lean, not a value pick.
Final result
Not graded yet. The final score and result appear here after the game, graded at the locked price.
Odds history
| Saved | Green Bay Packers best odds | New England Patriots best odds | Model (New England Patriots) | Market (New England Patriots) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +138 | -150 | 58% | 58% |
| Nov 3, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +135 | -148 | 58% | 58% |
| Nov 3, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | +149 | -158 | 60% | 60% |
| Nov 4, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +150 | -158 | 60% | 60% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Nov 3, 2026, 8:00 AM ET.
How to Watch and Stream Sunday's Patriots Game Against the Packers | NFL Week 9 · Patriots.com, Nov 3, 2026
Packers vs Patriots Picks, Predictions, Odds for NFL Week 9 Game · azcentral.com and The Arizona Republic, Nov 2, 2026
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: NE 1607 vs GB 1540 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Rest: GB has 3 more days of rest.
- Last 4 games, average margin: NE +8.5, GB +9.8.
- Model alone: NE 60% / GB 40%. Final estimate (model blended with the market): NE 60% / GB 40%. Market (vig removed): NE 60% / GB 40%.
- Spread: New England Patriots -3 · Total 46.5 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- Listed quarterbacks: Jordan Love (GB) vs Drake Maye (NE). Source data may be out of date.
- No players listed Out, Doubtful or Questionable on the latest official report (it may not be posted yet).
- Packers Go East to Take on the Patriots
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for NFL: +2% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.