Model value
The pick
Not locked yet. The price available at lock time (about 36 hours before kickoff, or sooner if it becomes a value pick) is the one that grades the pick.
Odds as of Nov 4, 2026, 8:00 AM ET
Model lean: Houston Texans (Lean). At the current price the estimated value is +0.2%. Value labels are switched off while the model has not beaten the betting market, so this is a lean, not a value pick.
Final result
Not graded yet. The final score and result appear here after the game, graded at the locked price.
Odds history
| Saved | Houston Texans best odds | Los Angeles Chargers best odds | Model (Los Angeles Chargers) | Market (Los Angeles Chargers) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | -198 | +188 | 32% | 34% |
| Nov 3, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | -205 | +190 | 32% | 34% |
| Nov 3, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | -210 | +190 | 32% | 34% |
| Nov 4, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | -215 | +190 | 32% | 34% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Nov 3, 2026, 8:00 AM ET.
Texans vs Chargers Picks, Predictions, Odds for NFL Week 9 Game Sunday · azcentral.com and The Arizona Republic, Nov 2, 2026
Chargers Release Unofficial Depth Chart Ahead of Week 9 Against the Texans · Los Angeles Chargers, Nov 4, 2026
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: LAC 1398 vs HOU 1517 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Rest: HOU has 7 more days of rest.
- Last 4 games, average margin: LAC -11.0, HOU +4.0.
- Model alone: LAC 32% / HOU 68%. Final estimate (model blended with the market): LAC 32% / HOU 68%. Market (vig removed): LAC 34% / HOU 66%.
- Spread: Los Angeles Chargers +4.5 · Total 40.5 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- Listed quarterbacks: C.J. Stroud (HOU) vs Justin Herbert (LAC). Source data may be out of date.
- No players listed Out, Doubtful or Questionable on the latest official report (it may not be posted yet).
- Texans vs. Chargers Opening Odds: Bolts Face Another Test in Week 9
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for NFL: +2% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.