Model value
The pick
Not locked yet. The price available at lock time (about 36 hours before kickoff, or sooner if it becomes a value pick) is the one that grades the pick.
Odds as of Nov 4, 2026, 8:00 AM ET
Model lean: Kansas City Chiefs (Strong). At the current price the estimated value is -1.0%. Value labels are switched off while the model has not beaten the betting market, so this is a lean, not a value pick.
Final result
Not graded yet. The final score and result appear here after the game, graded at the locked price.
Odds history
| Saved | New York Jets best odds | Kansas City Chiefs best odds | Model (Kansas City Chiefs) | Market (Kansas City Chiefs) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +390 | -430 | 80% | 79% |
| Nov 3, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +410 | -430 | 80% | 79% |
| Nov 3, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | +430 | -440 | 81% | 80% |
| Nov 4, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +425 | -440 | 81% | 80% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Nov 3, 2026, 8:00 AM ET.
New York Jets vs. Kansas City Chiefs Odds: Opening Lines for Week 9 Matchup · Yahoo Sports, Nov 2, 2026
Jets vs Chiefs Picks, Predictions, Odds for NFL Week 9 Game Sunday · azcentral.com and The Arizona Republic, Nov 2, 2026
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: KC 1554 vs NYJ 1346 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Last 4 games, average margin: KC -0.5, NYJ -2.5.
- Model alone: KC 77% / NYJ 23%. Final estimate (model blended with the market): KC 81% / NYJ 19%. Market (vig removed): KC 80% / NYJ 20%.
- Spread: Kansas City Chiefs -9.5 · Total 47.5 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- Listed quarterbacks: Geno Smith (NYJ) vs Patrick Mahomes (KC). Source data may be out of date.
- No players listed Out, Doubtful or Questionable on the latest official report (it may not be posted yet).
- How to Watch Kansas City Chiefs vs. New York Jets Week 9 Game: Time, TV, Odds
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for NFL: +2% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.