Model value
The pick
Not locked yet. The price available at lock time (about 36 hours before kickoff, or sooner if it becomes a value pick) is the one that grades the pick.
Odds as of Nov 4, 2026, 8:00 AM ET
Model lean: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Underdog). At the current price the estimated value is -2.1%. Value labels are switched off while the model has not beaten the betting market, so this is a lean, not a value pick.
Final result
Not graded yet. The final score and result appear here after the game, graded at the locked price.
Odds history
| Saved | Tampa Bay Buccaneers best odds | Chicago Bears best odds | Model (Chicago Bears) | Market (Chicago Bears) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +240 | -265 | 70% | 70% |
| Nov 3, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +235 | -270 | 70% | 70% |
| Nov 3, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | +230 | -270 | 70% | 70% |
| Nov 4, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +238 | -275 | 71% | 71% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Nov 3, 2026, 8:00 AM ET.
Buccaneers' Next Game: Tampa Bay Gets Prime-Time Stage in Chicago · Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Nov 1, 2026
Bears vs. Buccaneers Odds: Opening Lines for Week 9 Matchup · Yahoo Sports, Nov 3, 2026
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: CHI 1623 vs TB 1501 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Last 4 games, average margin: CHI +1.8, TB +11.8.
- Model alone: CHI 66% / TB 34%. Final estimate (model blended with the market): CHI 71% / TB 29%. Market (vig removed): CHI 71% / TB 29%.
- Spread: Chicago Bears -6 · Total 47.5 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- Listed quarterbacks: Baker Mayfield (TB) vs Caleb Williams (CHI). Source data may be out of date.
- No players listed Out, Doubtful or Questionable on the latest official report (it may not be posted yet).
- Buccaneers vs Bears Picks, Predictions, Odds for NFL Week 9 Game
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for NFL: +2% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.