Model value
The pick
Not locked yet. The price available at lock time (about 36 hours before kickoff, or sooner if it becomes a value pick) is the one that grades the pick.
Odds as of Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET
Model lean: Buffalo Bills (Strong). At the current price the estimated value is +1.2%. Value labels are switched off while the model has not beaten the betting market, so this is a lean, not a value pick.
Final result
Not graded yet. The final score and result appear here after the game, graded at the locked price.
Odds history
| Saved | Buffalo Bills best odds | New York Jets best odds | Model (New York Jets) | Market (New York Jets) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | -420 | +400 | 18% | 21% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | -425 | +390 | 18% | 21% |
| Nov 12, 2026, 9:12 PM ET | -440 | +370 | 18% | 22% |
| Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | -405 | +350 | 19% | 22% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Nov 10, 2026, 8:00 AM ET.
Bills vs. Jets Prediction: Odds, Expert Picks, QB Matchup, Injury Update, Trends, and Stats · NBC Sports, Nov 10, 2026
New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills Odds: Opening Lines for Week 10 Matchup · Yahoo Sports, Nov 9, 2026
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: NYJ 1335 vs BUF 1697 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Last 4 games, average margin: NYJ -9.5, BUF +12.2.
- Model alone: NYJ 16% / BUF 84%. Final estimate (model blended with the market): NYJ 19% / BUF 81%. Market (vig removed): NYJ 22% / BUF 78%.
- Spread: New York Jets +8.5 · Total 50.5 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- Listed quarterbacks: Josh Allen (BUF) vs Geno Smith (NYJ). Source data may be out of date.
- No players listed Out, Doubtful or Questionable on the latest official report (it may not be posted yet).
- Jets-Bills Game Preview | the Build Continues Amidst Adversity
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for NFL: +2% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.