Model value
The pick
Not locked yet. The price available at lock time (about 36 hours before kickoff, or sooner if it becomes a value pick) is the one that grades the pick.
Odds as of Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET
Model lean: Kansas City Chiefs (Lean). At the current price the estimated value is +1.0%. Value labels are switched off while the model has not beaten the betting market, so this is a lean, not a value pick.
Final result
Not graded yet. The final score and result appear here after the game, graded at the locked price.
Odds history
| Saved | Kansas City Chiefs best odds | Atlanta Falcons best odds | Model (Atlanta Falcons) | Market (Atlanta Falcons) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | -178 | +160 | 36% | 38% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | -178 | +157 | 36% | 38% |
| Nov 12, 2026, 9:12 PM ET | -174 | +157 | 36% | 38% |
| Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | -174 | +157 | 36% | 38% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Nov 10, 2026, 8:00 AM ET.
UK & Ireland How, When, and Where to Watch NFL Week 10 (2026): Kansas City Chiefs vs. Atlanta Falcons · Kansas City Chiefs, Nov 12, 2026
NFL Expert Picks: Who Will Win in Week 10, Falcons or Chiefs? · Atlanta Falcons, Nov 13, 2026
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: ATL 1445 vs KC 1565 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Last 4 games, average margin: ATL -8.0, KC +4.5.
- Model alone: ATL 38% / KC 62%. Final estimate (model blended with the market): ATL 36% / KC 64%. Market (vig removed): ATL 38% / KC 62%.
- Spread: Atlanta Falcons +3 · Total 47.5 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- Listed quarterbacks: Patrick Mahomes (KC) vs Michael Penix Jr. (ATL). Source data may be out of date.
- No players listed Out, Doubtful or Questionable on the latest official report (it may not be posted yet).
- Kansas City Chiefs vs. Atlanta Falcons Preview | Week 10
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for NFL: +2% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.