Model value
The pick
Not locked yet. The price available at lock time (about 36 hours before kickoff, or sooner if it becomes a value pick) is the one that grades the pick.
Odds as of Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET
Model lean: Miami Dolphins (Underdog). At the current price the estimated value is -0.5%. Value labels are switched off while the model has not beaten the betting market, so this is a lean, not a value pick.
Final result
Not graded yet. The final score and result appear here after the game, graded at the locked price.
Odds history
| Saved | Miami Dolphins best odds | Indianapolis Colts best odds | Model (Indianapolis Colts) | Market (Indianapolis Colts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +122 | -134 | 55% | 55% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +122 | -135 | 55% | 55% |
| Nov 12, 2026, 9:12 PM ET | +180 | -198 | 64% | 65% |
| Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +175 | -200 | 64% | 65% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Nov 10, 2026, 8:00 AM ET.
How to Watch, Stream & Listen: Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts · Miami Dolphins, Nov 12, 2026
How to Watch the Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts on November 15, 2026 · Colts.com, Nov 10, 2026
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: IND 1389 vs MIA 1367 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Last 4 games, average margin: IND -12.8, MIA -4.8.
- Model alone: IND 56% / MIA 44%. Final estimate (model blended with the market): IND 64% / MIA 36%. Market (vig removed): IND 65% / MIA 35%.
- Spread: Indianapolis Colts -3.5 · Total 38.5 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- Listed quarterbacks: Malik Willis (MIA) vs Daniel Jones (IND). Source data may be out of date.
- No players listed Out, Doubtful or Questionable on the latest official report (it may not be posted yet).
- NFL Week 10 TV Announcers, Coverage Map for Indianapolis Colts vs Miami Dolphins
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for NFL: +2% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.