Model value
The pick
Not locked yet. The price available at lock time (about 36 hours before kickoff, or sooner if it becomes a value pick) is the one that grades the pick.
Odds as of Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET
Model lean: New England Patriots (Underdog). At the current price the estimated value is -0.0%. Value labels are switched off while the model has not beaten the betting market, so this is a lean, not a value pick.
Final result
Not graded yet. The final score and result appear here after the game, graded at the locked price.
Odds history
| Saved | New England Patriots best odds | Detroit Lions best odds | Model (Detroit Lions) | Market (Detroit Lions) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +138 | -148 | 58% | 59% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +140 | -148 | 58% | 59% |
| Nov 12, 2026, 9:12 PM ET | +130 | -146 | 57% | 58% |
| Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +132 | -147 | 57% | 58% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Nov 10, 2026, 8:00 AM ET.
Game Preview: Patriots at Lions | NFL Week 10 · Patriots.com, Nov 10, 2026
New England Patriots vs. Detroit Lions Week 10 Preview | NFL Daily · NFL.com, Nov 12, 2026
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: DET 1595 vs NE 1566 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Last 4 games, average margin: DET +10.2, NE -3.0.
- Model alone: DET 54% / NE 46%. Final estimate (model blended with the market): DET 57% / NE 43%. Market (vig removed): DET 58% / NE 42%.
- Spread: Detroit Lions -2.5 · Total 49.5 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- Listed quarterbacks: Drake Maye (NE) vs Jared Goff (DET). Source data may be out of date.
- Injury report, NE: Carlton Davis III (CB, Out); Ben Brown (C, Out); TreVeyon Henderson (RB, Out).
- Injury report, DET: D.J. Reed (CB, Out); Cade Mays (C, Out); Kerby Joseph (S, Out).
- Patriots vs. Lions in Munich: Game Time, TV Channel, How to Watch and Everything to Know
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for NFL: +2% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.