Model value
The pick
Not locked yet. The price available at lock time (about 36 hours before kickoff, or sooner if it becomes a value pick) is the one that grades the pick.
Odds as of Nov 1, 2026, 8:00 AM ET
Model lean: Baylor (Strong). At the current price the estimated value is -2.1%. Value labels are switched off while the model has not beaten the betting market, so this is a lean, not a value pick.
Final result
Not graded yet. The final score and result appear here after the game, graded at the locked price.
Odds history
| Saved | Iowa State best odds | Baylor best odds | Model (Baylor) | Market (Baylor) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +280 | -360 | 77% | 75% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Nov 1, 2026, 8:00 AM ET.
Baylor-Iowa State Kickoff Time on Homecoming Set · BaylorBears.com, Nov 1, 2026
Time, TV Announced for Iowa State Football's Nov. 7 Game at Baylor · The Des Moines Register, Nov 1, 2026
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: Baylor 1557 vs Iowa State 1515 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Last 4 games, average margin: Baylor +14.0, Iowa State -11.2.
- Model alone: Baylor 72% / Iowa State 28%. Final estimate (model blended with the market): Baylor 77% / Iowa State 23%. Market (vig removed): Baylor 75% / Iowa State 25%.
- November 7, 2026: Iowa State vs Baylor College Football Prediction Market
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for College football: +2.5% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.