Model value
The pick
Odds as of Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET
Model lean: UCF (Lean). At the locked price the estimated value is -1.4%. Value labels are switched off while the model has not beaten the betting market, so this is a lean, not a value pick.
Saved Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET. Locked picks are never edited or deleted.
Final result
Not graded yet. The final score and result appear here after the game, graded at the locked price.
Odds history
- Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET: pick locked at -155 (DraftKings), model 60%, market 59%.
| Saved | Arizona State best odds | UCF best odds | Model (UCF) | Market (UCF) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +126 | -150 | 59% | 58% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +120 | -137 | 57% | 56% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | +132 | -142 | 59% | 57% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +127 | -145 | 58% | 57% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +151 | -160 | 62% | 60% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | +149 | -150 | 61% | 60% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +146 | -150 | 61% | 60% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +142 | -156 | 61% | 60% |
| Nov 12, 2026, 9:13 PM ET | +136 | -152 | 60% | 59% |
| Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +136 | -155 | 60% | 59% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET.
Previewing UCF vs. Arizona State Game in Week 11 of 2026 College Football Season · Daytona Beach News-Journal, Nov 12, 2026
Everything Kenny Dillingham Said About College Football Playoff Changes, State of Team and Week 11 vs. UCF · Sports Illustrated, Nov 9, 2026
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: UCF 1452 vs Arizona State 1520 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Last 4 games, average margin: UCF -9.2, Arizona State -3.5.
- Model alone: UCF 45% / Arizona State 55%. Final estimate (model blended with the market): UCF 60% / Arizona State 40%. Market (vig removed): UCF 59% / Arizona State 41%.
- Spread: UCF -3 · Total 48.25 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- When Is UCF vs Arizona State? See Ticket Prices, Prediction for Week 11 Game
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for College football: +2.5% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.