Model value
The pick
Odds as of Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET
Model lean: Iowa State (Lean). At the locked price the estimated value is -0.8%. Value labels are switched off while the model has not beaten the betting market, so this is a lean, not a value pick.
Saved Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET. Locked picks are never edited or deleted.
Final result
Not graded yet. The final score and result appear here after the game, graded at the locked price.
Odds history
- Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET: pick locked at -142 (FanDuel), model 58%, market 57%.
| Saved | Cincinnati best odds | Iowa State best odds | Model (Iowa State) | Market (Iowa State) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +108 | -130 | 55% | 54% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +102 | -108 | 52% | 51% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | +107 | -122 | 54% | 53% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +125 | -127 | 56% | 55% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +125 | -127 | 57% | 56% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | +135 | -145 | 59% | 58% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +135 | -148 | 59% | 58% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +135 | -148 | 59% | 58% |
| Nov 12, 2026, 9:13 PM ET | +130 | -142 | 58% | 57% |
| Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +130 | -142 | 58% | 57% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET.
PRIMER: Iowa State vs. Cincinnati · Iowa State Athletics, Nov 10, 2026
Iowa State vs. Cincinnati: How to Watch and Stream the Cyclones' Next Game · KCCI, Nov 10, 2026
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: Iowa State 1497 vs Cincinnati 1504 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Last 4 games, average margin: Iowa State -14.8, Cincinnati -5.2.
- Model alone: Iowa State 55% / Cincinnati 45%. Final estimate (model blended with the market): Iowa State 58% / Cincinnati 42%. Market (vig removed): Iowa State 57% / Cincinnati 43%.
- Spread: Iowa State -3 · Total 59.25 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- Cincinnati Football’s Week 11 Matchup at Iowa State Set for 12:00 P.m. ET Kickoff
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for College football: +2.5% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.