Model value
The pick
Odds as of Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET
Model lean: Houston (Strong). At the locked price the estimated value is -1.8%. Value labels are switched off while the model has not beaten the betting market, so this is a lean, not a value pick.
Saved Nov 12, 2026, 9:13 PM ET. Locked picks are never edited or deleted.
Final result
Not graded yet. The final score and result appear here after the game, graded at the locked price.
Odds history
- Nov 12, 2026, 9:13 PM ET: pick locked at -350 (BetMGM), model 76%, market 76%.
- Last pre-kickoff check (check 2): market-implied 75.5% for the pick.
| Saved | Houston best odds | Colorado best odds | Model (Colorado) | Market (Colorado) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | -410 | +340 | 21% | 22% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | -410 | +330 | 22% | 22% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | -425 | +340 | 21% | 22% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | -385 | +325 | 22% | 23% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | -345 | +325 | 23% | 23% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | -380 | +325 | 22% | 23% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | -390 | +330 | 22% | 23% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | -390 | +330 | 22% | 23% |
| Nov 12, 2026, 9:13 PM ET | -350 | +310 | 24% | 24% |
| Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | -350 | +310 | 24% | 24% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET.
Colorado vs. Houston Football Predictions for Week 11 Matchup · Yahoo Sports, Nov 12, 2026
Know Before You Go: Football vs. Houston - University of Colorado Athletics · University of Colorado Athletics, Nov 11, 2026
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: Colorado 1369 vs Houston 1623 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Last 4 games, average margin: Colorado -10.8, Houston +5.2.
- Model alone: Colorado 24% / Houston 76%. Final estimate (model blended with the market): Colorado 24% / Houston 76%. Market (vig removed): Colorado 24% / Houston 76%.
- Spread: Colorado +8.75 · Total 51.25 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- Colorado Buffaloes vs. Houston Cougars: Preview, How to Watch, Betting Odds
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for College football: +2.5% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.