Model value
The pick
Odds as of Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET
Model lean: TCU (Strong). At the locked price the estimated value is -0.9%. Value labels are switched off while the model has not beaten the betting market, so this is a lean, not a value pick.
Saved Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET. Locked picks are never edited or deleted.
Final result
Not graded yet. The final score and result appear here after the game, graded at the locked price.
Odds history
- Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET: pick locked at -385 (BetOnline.ag), model 79%, market 77%.
| Saved | Kansas State best odds | TCU best odds | Model (TCU) | Market (TCU) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +250 | -310 | 74% | 73% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +285 | -345 | 76% | 75% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | +285 | -350 | 77% | 75% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +285 | -345 | 76% | 75% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +340 | -375 | 78% | 76% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | +330 | -385 | 78% | 77% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +330 | -385 | 78% | 77% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +330 | -385 | 78% | 77% |
| Nov 12, 2026, 9:13 PM ET | +340 | -385 | 79% | 77% |
| Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +340 | -385 | 79% | 77% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET.
TCU Game Set for Afternoon Kick · Kansas State University Athletics, Nov 8, 2026
Kansas State Football Unveils Game Time, TV for Week 11 at TCU · The Topeka Capital-Journal, Nov 8, 2026
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: TCU 1537 vs Kansas State 1448 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Last 4 games, average margin: TCU +3.0, Kansas State -10.2.
- Model alone: TCU 74% / Kansas State 26%. Final estimate (model blended with the market): TCU 79% / Kansas State 21%. Market (vig removed): TCU 77% / Kansas State 23%.
- Spread: TCU -10.5 · Total 44.5 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- Kansas State vs. TCU - Live Score - November 14, 2026
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for College football: +2.5% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.