Model value
The pick
Odds as of Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET
Model lean: LSU (Lean). At the locked price the estimated value is -0.4%. Value labels are switched off while the model has not beaten the betting market, so this is a lean, not a value pick.
Saved Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET. Locked picks are never edited or deleted.
Final result
Not graded yet. The final score and result appear here after the game, graded at the locked price.
Odds history
- Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET: pick locked at -178 (FanDuel), model 64%, market 62%.
| Saved | Texas best odds | LSU best odds | Model (LSU) | Market (LSU) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +146 | -175 | 62% | 61% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +145 | -170 | 62% | 61% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | +160 | -182 | 64% | 62% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +145 | -165 | 62% | 61% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +155 | -170 | 62% | 61% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | +158 | -170 | 62% | 61% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +158 | -170 | 63% | 61% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +160 | -170 | 63% | 61% |
| Nov 12, 2026, 9:13 PM ET | +165 | -175 | 64% | 62% |
| Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +171 | -178 | 64% | 62% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET.
College Football Odds Week 11: LSU Favored Against Texas in a Slate Full of Letdown Spots - The Athletic · The New York Times, Nov 11, 2026
LSU vs Texas Football Tickets for This Weekend Start at Over $300 · USA Today, Nov 9, 2026
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: LSU 1620 vs Texas 1719 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Last 4 games, average margin: LSU +8.2, Texas +11.5.
- Model alone: LSU 46% / Texas 54%. Final estimate (model blended with the market): LSU 64% / Texas 36%. Market (vig removed): LSU 62% / Texas 38%.
- Spread: LSU -4 · Total 46.25 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- ESPN’s College Football Model Puts Texas on Upset Alert at LSU
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for College football: +2.5% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.