Model value
The pick
Odds as of Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET
Model lean: Auburn (Toss-up). At the locked price the estimated value is -1.6%. Value labels are switched off while the model has not beaten the betting market, so this is a lean, not a value pick.
Saved Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET. Locked picks are never edited or deleted.
Final result
Not graded yet. The final score and result appear here after the game, graded at the locked price.
Odds history
- Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET: pick locked at -129 (BetRivers), model 55%, market 56%.
| Saved | Auburn best odds | Mississippi State best odds | Model (Mississippi State) | Market (Mississippi State) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | -160 | +132 | 41% | 41% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | -142 | +124 | 43% | 43% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | -142 | +132 | 43% | 43% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | -142 | +127 | 43% | 43% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | -132 | +127 | 43% | 43% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | -137 | +130 | 44% | 43% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | -137 | +130 | 43% | 43% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | -132 | +130 | 44% | 43% |
| Nov 12, 2026, 9:13 PM ET | -135 | +120 | 44% | 44% |
| Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | -129 | +120 | 45% | 44% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET.
ESPN Predicts the Outcome of Saturday's Auburn vs. Mississippi State Game · Yahoo Sports, Nov 12, 2026
Early Betting Odds for Auburn Football vs. Mississippi State in Week 11 · Auburn Wire, Nov 9, 2026
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: Mississippi State 1458 vs Auburn 1497 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Last 4 games, average margin: Mississippi State -17.2, Auburn -11.2.
- Model alone: Mississippi State 53% / Auburn 47%. Final estimate (model blended with the market): Mississippi State 45% / Auburn 55%. Market (vig removed): Mississippi State 44% / Auburn 56%.
- Spread: Mississippi State +2.5 · Total 50.5 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- The Opening Drive: Auburn at Mississippi State
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for College football: +2.5% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.