Model value
Duke
45%
Model estimate
46%Market implied
VirginiaModel pick
55%
Model estimate
54%Market implied
The pick
Pick locked at-125DraftKingsThis price grades the pick
Live oddsClosedGame has started
Odds as of Oct 22, 2026, 11:00 AM ET, when the pick was locked. Live odds close at kickoff.
ModelAt lock: 55%
MarketAt lock: 54%
Model pick: Virginia (Toss-up). At the locked price the estimated value is -1.7%, below the +2.5% value bar, so it is not a value pick.
Saved Oct 22, 2026, 11:00 AM ET. Locked picks are never edited or deleted.
Final result
Result
Loss
Duke 19 - Virginia 16
Units
-1.00u
1 flat unit at the locked price
Closing-line value
-1.2%
locked price vs the last pre-kickoff line
1 unit = your standard bet. Example: -1.00u is -$10.00 at $10 per bet.
Odds history
- Oct 22, 2026, 11:00 AM ET: pick locked at -125 (DraftKings), model 55%, market 54%.
- Last pre-kickoff check (check 4): market-implied 54.9% for the pick.
No odds snapshots were saved for this game (it was logged before history tracking started). Snapshots are saved each time the model runs, so later games build a full history.
Value bar for College football: +2.5% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.