Model value
The pick
Not locked yet. The price available at lock time (about 36 hours before kickoff, or sooner if it becomes a value pick) is the one that grades the pick.
Odds as of Nov 1, 2026, 8:00 AM ET
Model lean: SMU (Lean). At the current price the estimated value is -0.4%. Value labels are switched off while the model has not beaten the betting market, so this is a lean, not a value pick.
Final result
Not graded yet. The final score and result appear here after the game, graded at the locked price.
Odds history
| Saved | Virginia Tech best odds | SMU best odds | Model (SMU) | Market (SMU) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +190 | -205 | 67% | 65% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Nov 1, 2026, 8:00 AM ET.
Three Bold Predictions for Virginia Tech's Final Four Games of the Season · Sports Illustrated, Oct 31, 2026
Virginia Tech Football: Opening Lines vs. No. 19 SMU Revealed · Gobbler Country, Nov 1, 2026
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: SMU 1616 vs Virginia Tech 1527 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Rest: Virginia Tech has 7 more days of rest.
- Last 4 games, average margin: SMU +13.8, Virginia Tech +1.8.
- Model alone: SMU 72% / Virginia Tech 28%. Final estimate (model blended with the market): SMU 67% / Virginia Tech 33%. Market (vig removed): SMU 65% / Virginia Tech 35%.
- Spread: SMU -6.5 · Total 56.5 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- Virginia Tech QB Ethan Grunkemeyer's Grit at Clemson, SMU Next
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for College football: +2.5% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.