Model value
The pick
Odds as of Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET
Model lean: Pittsburgh (Lean). At the locked price the estimated value is -0.0%. Value labels are switched off while the model has not beaten the betting market, so this is a lean, not a value pick.
Saved Nov 12, 2026, 9:13 PM ET. Locked picks are never edited or deleted.
Final result
Not graded yet. The final score and result appear here after the game, graded at the locked price.
Odds history
- Nov 12, 2026, 9:13 PM ET: pick locked at -159 (BetRivers), model 61%, market 60%.
- Last pre-kickoff check (check 2): market-implied 60.3% for the pick.
| Saved | Florida State best odds | Pittsburgh best odds | Model (Pittsburgh) | Market (Pittsburgh) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +142 | -162 | 61% | 60% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +148 | -150 | 61% | 60% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | +167 | -166 | 63% | 62% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +148 | -160 | 61% | 60% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +148 | -158 | 61% | 60% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | +142 | -160 | 61% | 60% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +143 | -160 | 61% | 60% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +143 | -160 | 61% | 60% |
| Nov 12, 2026, 9:13 PM ET | +148 | -159 | 61% | 60% |
| Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +146 | -165 | 62% | 60% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET.
FSU vs Pittsburgh: Score Predictions, Analysis from FSU Wire · Yahoo Sports, Nov 12, 2026
NoleGameday Staff Score Predictions: FSU Football at Pittsburgh Panthers · Sports Illustrated, Nov 12, 2026
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: Pittsburgh 1537 vs Florida State 1469 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Rest: Pittsburgh has 7 more days of rest.
- Last 4 games, average margin: Pittsburgh -4.0, Florida State -9.2.
- Model alone: Pittsburgh 64% / Florida State 36%. Final estimate (model blended with the market): Pittsburgh 62% / Florida State 38%. Market (vig removed): Pittsburgh 60% / Florida State 40%.
- Spread: Pittsburgh -3.5 · Total 52.25 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- FSU vs Pitt Predictions, Picks, Odds. Who Wins Week 11 College Football Game?
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for College football: +2.5% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.