Model value
The pick
Odds as of Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET
Model lean: Virginia (Strong). At the locked price the estimated value is -1.0%. Value labels are switched off while the model has not beaten the betting market, so this is a lean, not a value pick.
Saved Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET. Locked picks are never edited or deleted.
Final result
Not graded yet. The final score and result appear here after the game, graded at the locked price.
Odds history
- Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET: pick locked at -400 (BetMGM), model 79%, market 77%.
| Saved | California best odds | Virginia best odds | Model (Virginia) | Market (Virginia) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +375 | -490 | 81% | 80% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +380 | -490 | 82% | 80% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | +400 | -490 | 82% | 80% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +400 | -490 | 82% | 80% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +340 | -410 | 79% | 78% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | +340 | -410 | 79% | 78% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +340 | -410 | 79% | 78% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +340 | -360 | 79% | 77% |
| Nov 12, 2026, 9:13 PM ET | +340 | -385 | 79% | 77% |
| Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +340 | -400 | 79% | 77% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET.
Virginia College Football 2026: Offensive Preview · Write For California, Nov 11, 2026
Three Big Story Lines for Virginia Football Against California · Sports Illustrated, Nov 9, 2026
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: Virginia 1480 vs California 1372 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Last 4 games, average margin: Virginia -13.5, California -22.2.
- Model alone: Virginia 71% / California 29%. Final estimate (model blended with the market): Virginia 79% / California 21%. Market (vig removed): Virginia 77% / California 23%.
- Spread: Virginia -10 · Total 46.75 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- How to Watch Virginia Football's Home Game vs. California
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for College football: +2.5% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.