Model value
The pick
Odds as of Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET
Model lean: Miami (Strong). At the locked price the estimated value is -1.7%. Value labels are switched off while the model has not beaten the betting market, so this is a lean, not a value pick.
Saved Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET. Locked picks are never edited or deleted.
Final result
Not graded yet. The final score and result appear here after the game, graded at the locked price.
Odds history
- Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET: pick locked at -550 (DraftKings), model 83%, market 82%.
| Saved | Duke best odds | Miami best odds | Model (Miami) | Market (Miami) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +500 | -580 | 85% | 83% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +470 | -580 | 84% | 83% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | +475 | -550 | 84% | 82% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +475 | -550 | 84% | 82% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +475 | -550 | 83% | 82% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | +430 | -550 | 83% | 81% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +430 | -550 | 83% | 81% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +430 | -550 | 83% | 81% |
| Nov 12, 2026, 9:13 PM ET | +440 | -550 | 83% | 82% |
| Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +440 | -550 | 83% | 82% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET.
Duke Football: Miami Game Preview · Yahoo Sports, Nov 12, 2026
Duke Football vs. Miami: Time, TV & Game Info (2026) · NC Football News, Nov 9, 2026
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: Miami 1748 vs Duke 1645 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Last 4 games, average margin: Miami +8.2, Duke +20.5.
- Model alone: Miami 78% / Duke 22%. Final estimate (model blended with the market): Miami 83% / Duke 17%. Market (vig removed): Miami 82% / Duke 18%.
- Spread: Miami -13.5 · Total 54.5 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- Duke vs. Miami Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 11
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for College football: +2.5% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.