Model value
The pick
Odds as of Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET
Model lean: North Carolina (Underdog). At the locked price the estimated value is -0.9%. Value labels are switched off while the model has not beaten the betting market, so this is a lean, not a value pick.
Saved Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET. Locked picks are never edited or deleted.
Final result
Not graded yet. The final score and result appear here after the game, graded at the locked price.
Odds history
- Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET: pick locked at +153 (Bovada), model 39%, market 39%.
| Saved | Louisville best odds | North Carolina best odds | Model (North Carolina) | Market (North Carolina) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | -140 | +120 | 44% | 44% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | -138 | +120 | 44% | 44% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | -141 | +132 | 44% | 43% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | -141 | +132 | 43% | 43% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | -165 | +148 | 40% | 40% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | -165 | +148 | 40% | 40% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | -165 | +148 | 40% | 40% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | -165 | +148 | 40% | 40% |
| Nov 12, 2026, 9:13 PM ET | -170 | +153 | 39% | 39% |
| Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | -166 | +153 | 39% | 39% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET.
Watch Football's Pre-Louisville Press Conferences - University of North Carolina Athletics · University of North Carolina Athletics, Nov 10, 2026
How to Watch Louisville vs. North Carolina: TV Channel and Streaming Options for November 14 · The New York Times, Nov 13, 2026
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: North Carolina 1519 vs Louisville 1627 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Last 4 games, average margin: North Carolina +4.2, Louisville +21.8.
- Model alone: North Carolina 39% / Louisville 61%. Final estimate (model blended with the market): North Carolina 39% / Louisville 61%. Market (vig removed): North Carolina 39% / Louisville 61%.
- Spread: North Carolina +3.5 · Total 58.5 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- Louisville vs. North Carolina Picks, Odds for ACC College Football Game
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for College football: +2.5% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.