Model value
The pick
Odds as of Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET
Model lean: SMU (Toss-up). At the locked price the estimated value is -2.8%. Value labels are switched off while the model has not beaten the betting market, so this is a lean, not a value pick.
Saved Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET. Locked picks are never edited or deleted.
Final result
Not graded yet. The final score and result appear here after the game, graded at the locked price.
Odds history
- Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET: pick locked at -115 (DraftKings), model 52%, market 51%.
| Saved | Wake Forest best odds | SMU best odds | Model (SMU) | Market (SMU) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | -130 | +110 | 46% | 46% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | -130 | +110 | 46% | 46% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | -115 | +107 | 48% | 48% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | -120 | +107 | 48% | 47% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | -120 | +107 | 48% | 48% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | -110 | -105 | 50% | 49% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | -108 | -105 | 50% | 49% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | -108 | -105 | 50% | 49% |
| Nov 12, 2026, 9:13 PM ET | -103 | -113 | 52% | 51% |
| Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | -103 | -115 | 52% | 51% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET.
SMU vs. Wake Forest: Key Injuries Could Shape Top-25 ACC Showdown · Yahoo Sports, Nov 12, 2026
Mustangs Ready for Top-25 Matchup with Wake Forest | Saturday at 11 AM CT · SMU Athletics, Nov 10, 2026
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: SMU 1635 vs Wake Forest 1650 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Rest: Wake Forest has 6 more days of rest.
- Last 4 games, average margin: SMU +17.2, Wake Forest +39.0.
- Model alone: SMU 54% / Wake Forest 46%. Final estimate (model blended with the market): SMU 52% / Wake Forest 48%. Market (vig removed): SMU 51% / Wake Forest 49%.
- Spread: SMU -1.25 · Total 60.5 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- Wake Forest Football at SMU: Time, TV, Odds & Game Info (2026)
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for College football: +2.5% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.