Model value
Michigan State
14%
Model estimate
16%Market implied
UCLAModel pick
86%
Model estimate
84%Market implied
The pick
Pick locked at-700DraftKingsThis price grades the pick
Live oddsClosedGame has started
Odds as of Oct 23, 2026, 11:00 AM ET, when the pick was locked. Live odds close at kickoff.
ModelAt lock: 86%
MarketAt lock: 84%
Model pick: UCLA (Strong). At the locked price the estimated value is -2.1%, below the +2.5% value bar, so it is not a value pick.
Saved Oct 23, 2026, 11:00 AM ET. Locked picks are never edited or deleted.
Final result
Result
Win
Michigan State 10 - UCLA 28
Units
+0.14u
1 flat unit at the locked price
Closing-line value
-2.3%
locked price vs the last pre-kickoff line
1 unit = your standard bet. Example: +0.14u is +$1.43 at $10 per bet.
Odds history
- Oct 23, 2026, 11:00 AM ET: pick locked at -700 (DraftKings), model 86%, market 84%.
- Last pre-kickoff check (check 5): market-implied 85.5% for the pick.
No odds snapshots were saved for this game (it was logged before history tracking started). Snapshots are saved each time the model runs, so later games build a full history.
Value bar for College football: +2.5% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.