Model value
The pick
Not locked yet. The price available at lock time (about 36 hours before kickoff, or sooner if it becomes a value pick) is the one that grades the pick.
Odds as of Nov 1, 2026, 8:00 AM ET
Model lean: Michigan (Strong). At the current price the estimated value is -1.4%. Value labels are switched off while the model has not beaten the betting market, so this is a lean, not a value pick.
Final result
Not graded yet. The final score and result appear here after the game, graded at the locked price.
Odds history
| Saved | Michigan State best odds | Michigan best odds | Model (Michigan) | Market (Michigan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +530 | -675 | 86% | 84% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Nov 1, 2026, 8:00 AM ET.
Michigan State-Michigan Game Set for 7:30 P.m. Kick · Michigan State University Athletics, Nov 1, 2026
When Does Michigan State Football Play Next? · Yahoo Sports, Oct 31, 2026
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: Michigan 1592 vs Michigan State 1396 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Rest: Michigan State has 7 more days of rest.
- Last 4 games, average margin: Michigan -0.8, Michigan State -12.5.
- Model alone: Michigan 88% / Michigan State 12%. Final estimate (model blended with the market): Michigan 86% / Michigan State 14%. Market (vig removed): Michigan 84% / Michigan State 16%.
- Spread: Michigan -14 · Total 39.5 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- Michigan vs Michigan State Football Start Time Announced for 2026 Game
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for College football: +2.5% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.