Model value
The pick
Not locked yet. The price available at lock time (about 36 hours before kickoff, or sooner if it becomes a value pick) is the one that grades the pick.
Odds as of Nov 1, 2026, 8:00 AM ET
Model lean: Northwestern (Toss-up). At the current price the estimated value is +0.9%. Value labels are switched off while the model has not beaten the betting market, so this is a lean, not a value pick.
Final result
Not graded yet. The final score and result appear here after the game, graded at the locked price.
Odds history
| Saved | Iowa best odds | Northwestern best odds | Model (Northwestern) | Market (Northwestern) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +105 | -110 | 53% | 52% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Nov 1, 2026, 8:00 AM ET.
Road Dogs: Iowa Football Opens as Underdogs Against Northwestern · Sports Illustrated, Oct 30, 2026
Time, TV Announced for Iowa Football's Game at Northwestern · Hawk Central, Nov 1, 2026
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: Northwestern 1578 vs Iowa 1648 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Last 4 games, average margin: Northwestern +13.5, Iowa +6.8.
- Model alone: Northwestern 52% / Iowa 48%. Final estimate (model blended with the market): Northwestern 53% / Iowa 47%. Market (vig removed): Northwestern 52% / Iowa 48%.
- Spread: Northwestern -1.5 · Total 42.5 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- Chip Kelly's Old-school Gamble, Northwestern's New-school Vision Have Wildcats Dreaming of the College Football Playoff
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for College football: +2.5% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.