Model value
The pick
Not locked yet. The price available at lock time (about 36 hours before kickoff, or sooner if it becomes a value pick) is the one that grades the pick.
Odds as of Nov 1, 2026, 8:00 AM ET
Model lean: Washington (Toss-up). At the current price the estimated value is -3.1%. Value labels are switched off while the model has not beaten the betting market, so this is a lean, not a value pick.
Final result
Not graded yet. The final score and result appear here after the game, graded at the locked price.
Odds history
| Saved | Penn State best odds | Washington best odds | Model (Washington) | Market (Washington) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | -108 | -113 | 51% | 51% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Nov 1, 2026, 8:00 AM ET.
Penn State Set for Afternoon Kickoff Against Washington · StateCollege.com, Oct 26, 2026
Penn State-Washington Set for 3:30 P.M. Kickoff on FS1 · Onward State, Nov 1, 2026
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: Washington 1594 vs Penn State 1559 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Last 4 games, average margin: Washington -0.5, Penn State -4.5.
- Model alone: Washington 62% / Penn State 38%. Final estimate (model blended with the market): Washington 51% / Penn State 49%. Market (vig removed): Washington 51% / Penn State 49%.
- Penn State Matchup with Washington Will Kick in Late Afternoon. What to Know
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for College football: +2.5% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.