Model value
The pick
Odds as of Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET
Model lean: Indiana (Strong). At the locked price the estimated value is -0.3%. Value labels are switched off while the model has not beaten the betting market, so this is a lean, not a value pick.
Saved Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET. Locked picks are never edited or deleted.
Final result
Not graded yet. The final score and result appear here after the game, graded at the locked price.
Odds history
- Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET: pick locked at -310 (Bovada), model 75%, market 74%.
| Saved | USC best odds | Indiana best odds | Model (Indiana) | Market (Indiana) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +220 | -245 | 71% | 69% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +220 | -265 | 71% | 70% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | +245 | -265 | 73% | 71% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +245 | -265 | 73% | 71% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +248 | -275 | 73% | 71% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | +245 | -275 | 73% | 71% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +242 | -285 | 73% | 71% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +242 | -285 | 73% | 71% |
| Nov 12, 2026, 9:13 PM ET | +270 | -310 | 75% | 74% |
| Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +270 | -310 | 75% | 74% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET.
College Football Week 11 Expert Picks, Predictions for Indiana-USC and More · FOX Sports, Nov 12, 2026
USC vs. Indiana Prediction, Pick, Odds, Spread: Hoosiers-Trojans Clash Loaded with CFP Stakes · CBS Sports, Nov 12, 2026
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: Indiana 1776 vs USC 1651 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Last 4 games, average margin: Indiana +3.2, USC +1.8.
- Model alone: Indiana 66% / USC 34%. Final estimate (model blended with the market): Indiana 75% / USC 25%. Market (vig removed): Indiana 74% / USC 26%.
- Spread: Indiana -8.5 · Total 50.5 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- USC Trojans' Three Keys to Upset Win Over Indiana Hoosiers
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for College football: +2.5% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.