Model value
The pick
Odds as of Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET
Model lean: Iowa (Strong). At the locked price the estimated value is -1.6%. Value labels are switched off while the model has not beaten the betting market, so this is a lean, not a value pick.
Saved Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET. Locked picks are never edited or deleted.
Final result
Not graded yet. The final score and result appear here after the game, graded at the locked price.
Odds history
- Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET: pick locked at -900 (BetMGM), model 89%, market 87%.
| Saved | Purdue best odds | Iowa best odds | Model (Iowa) | Market (Iowa) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +570 | -820 | 87% | 86% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +575 | -800 | 87% | 86% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | +660 | -900 | 88% | 87% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +650 | -900 | 88% | 87% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +650 | -900 | 88% | 87% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | +661 | -900 | 89% | 87% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +661 | -900 | 88% | 87% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +661 | -900 | 88% | 87% |
| Nov 12, 2026, 9:13 PM ET | +720 | -900 | 89% | 87% |
| Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +720 | -900 | 89% | 87% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET.
Iowa Football vs. Purdue: How to Watch the Hawkeyes' Next Game · KCCI, Nov 10, 2026
Iowa Football Announces Kickoff Time, TV Channel for Purdue Game · Hawkeyes Wire, Nov 8, 2026
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: Iowa 1677 vs Purdue 1377 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Last 4 games, average margin: Iowa +14.5, Purdue -0.8.
- Model alone: Iowa 90% / Purdue 10%. Final estimate (model blended with the market): Iowa 89% / Purdue 11%. Market (vig removed): Iowa 87% / Purdue 13%.
- Spread: Iowa -17.5 · Total 47.75 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- Numbers to Know Ahead of Iowa Football's Game Against Purdue
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for College football: +2.5% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.