Model value
The pick
Odds as of Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET
Model lean: Ohio State (Strong). At the locked price the estimated value is -1.0%. Value labels are switched off while the model has not beaten the betting market, so this is a lean, not a value pick.
Saved Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET. Locked picks are never edited or deleted.
Final result
Not graded yet. The final score and result appear here after the game, graded at the locked price.
Odds history
- Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET: pick locked at -550 (DraftKings), model 84%, market 82%.
| Saved | Northwestern best odds | Ohio State best odds | Model (Ohio State) | Market (Ohio State) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +320 | -360 | 78% | 76% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +310 | -360 | 77% | 76% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | +355 | -410 | 80% | 78% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +355 | -430 | 80% | 78% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +400 | -450 | 81% | 79% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | +385 | -450 | 81% | 79% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +385 | -450 | 81% | 79% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +385 | -450 | 81% | 79% |
| Nov 12, 2026, 9:13 PM ET | +460 | -550 | 84% | 82% |
| Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +460 | -550 | 84% | 82% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET.
Ohio State Set to Host Northwestern on Saturday · Ohio State | Official Athletics Website, Nov 9, 2026
Watch Northwestern vs Ohio State Live: Streaming, TV Channel & Start Time - Nov 14, 2026 | CFB Week 11 · FOX One, Nov 12, 2026
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: Ohio State 1689 vs Northwestern 1549 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Last 4 games, average margin: Ohio State +2.0, Northwestern +2.2.
- Model alone: Ohio State 83% / Northwestern 17%. Final estimate (model blended with the market): Ohio State 84% / Northwestern 16%. Market (vig removed): Ohio State 82% / Northwestern 18%.
- Spread: Ohio State -14 · Total 44.25 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- Ohio State Is a 10.5-Point Favorite Over Northwestern Despite Losing Back-to-back Games
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for College football: +2.5% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.