Model value
The pick
Odds as of Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET
Model lean: Oregon (Strong). At the locked price the estimated value is -1.4%. Value labels are switched off while the model has not beaten the betting market, so this is a lean, not a value pick.
Saved Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET. Locked picks are never edited or deleted.
Final result
Not graded yet. The final score and result appear here after the game, graded at the locked price.
Odds history
- Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET: pick locked at -410 (FanDuel), model 79%, market 78%.
| Saved | Michigan best odds | Oregon best odds | Model (Oregon) | Market (Oregon) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +385 | -395 | 80% | 78% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +360 | -430 | 80% | 79% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | +380 | -450 | 81% | 79% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +380 | -430 | 80% | 79% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +400 | -420 | 80% | 78% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | +350 | -425 | 80% | 78% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +350 | -425 | 80% | 78% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +350 | -425 | 80% | 78% |
| Nov 12, 2026, 9:13 PM ET | +340 | -420 | 80% | 78% |
| Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +334 | -410 | 79% | 78% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET.
Watch Michigan vs Oregon Live: Streaming, TV Channel & Start Time - Nov 14, 2026 | CFB Week 11 · FOX One, Nov 13, 2026
How to Watch Michigan vs. No. 18 Oregon: TV Channel and Streaming Options for November 14 - The Athletic · The New York Times, Nov 12, 2026
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: Oregon 1692 vs Michigan 1545 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Last 4 games, average margin: Oregon +3.2, Michigan -1.5.
- Model alone: Oregon 79% / Michigan 21%. Final estimate (model blended with the market): Oregon 79% / Michigan 21%. Market (vig removed): Oregon 78% / Michigan 22%.
- Spread: Oregon -10.5 · Total 38.75 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- Surging Ducks Welcome Michigan to Autzen Stadium
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for College football: +2.5% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.