Model value
The pick
Odds as of Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET
Model lean: Penn State (Strong). At the locked price the estimated value is -1.0%. Value labels are switched off while the model has not beaten the betting market, so this is a lean, not a value pick.
Saved Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET. Locked picks are never edited or deleted.
Final result
Not graded yet. The final score and result appear here after the game, graded at the locked price.
Odds history
- Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET: pick locked at -350 (BetMGM), model 77%, market 75%.
| Saved | Minnesota best odds | Penn State best odds | Model (Penn State) | Market (Penn State) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +225 | -270 | 72% | 70% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +235 | -275 | 72% | 71% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | +250 | -290 | 74% | 72% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +285 | -335 | 76% | 74% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +310 | -335 | 76% | 75% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | +285 | -335 | 76% | 75% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +294 | -335 | 77% | 75% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +294 | -335 | 76% | 75% |
| Nov 12, 2026, 9:13 PM ET | +303 | -350 | 77% | 75% |
| Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +303 | -350 | 77% | 75% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET.
Coach Fleck Previews Saturday's Game at Penn State - University of Minnesota Athletics · University of Minnesota Athletics, Nov 9, 2026
Minnesota Gophers at Penn State: TV, Pregame Coverage · Yahoo Sports, Nov 11, 2026
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: Penn State 1579 vs Minnesota 1492 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Last 4 games, average margin: Penn State +1.5, Minnesota -11.5.
- Model alone: Penn State 76% / Minnesota 24%. Final estimate (model blended with the market): Penn State 77% / Minnesota 23%. Market (vig removed): Penn State 75% / Minnesota 25%.
- Spread: Penn State -9.5 · Total 41.75 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- Penn State Football vs. Minnesota: Expert Score Predictions from Lions247
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for College football: +2.5% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.