Model value
San Diego StateLikelier to win
50%
Model estimate
51%Market implied
Colorado StateModel pick
50%
Model estimate
49%Market implied
The pick
Pick locked at-105DraftKingsThis price grades the pick
Live oddsClosedGame has started
Odds as of Oct 23, 2026, 11:00 AM ET, when the pick was locked. Live odds close at kickoff.
ModelAt lock: 50%
MarketAt lock: 49%
Model pick: Colorado State (Underdog). At the locked price the estimated value is -2.7%, below the +2.5% value bar, so it is not a value pick.
Saved Oct 23, 2026, 11:00 AM ET. Locked picks are never edited or deleted.
Final result
Result
Win
San Diego State 49 - Colorado State 56
Units
+0.95u
1 flat unit at the locked price
Closing-line value
-4.4%
locked price vs the last pre-kickoff line
1 unit = your standard bet. Example: +0.95u is +$9.52 at $10 per bet.
Odds history
- Oct 23, 2026, 11:00 AM ET: pick locked at -105 (DraftKings), model 50%, market 49%.
- Last pre-kickoff check (check 5): market-implied 49.0% for the pick.
No odds snapshots were saved for this game (it was logged before history tracking started). Snapshots are saved each time the model runs, so later games build a full history.
Value bar for College football: +2.5% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.