Model value
The pick
Not locked yet. The price available at lock time (about 36 hours before kickoff, or sooner if it becomes a value pick) is the one that grades the pick.
Odds as of Oct 25, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Model pick: Boise State (Strong). At the current price the estimated value is -1.1%, below the +2.5% value bar, so it is not a value pick.
Final result
Not graded yet. The final score and result appear here after the game, graded at the locked price.
Odds history
| Saved | Texas State best odds | Boise State best odds | Model (Boise State) | Market (Boise State) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026, 4:45 PM ET | +390 | -461 | 81% | 79% |
| Oct 25, 2026, 5:00 PM ET | +370 | -461 | 81% | 79% |
| Oct 25, 2026, 5:10 PM ET | +360 | -461 | 81% | 79% |
| Oct 25, 2026, 5:13 PM ET | +360 | -461 | 81% | 79% |
| Oct 25, 2026, 5:20 PM ET | +360 | -461 | 81% | 79% |
| Oct 25, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | +360 | -441 | 81% | 79% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Oct 25, 2026, 4:45 PM ET.
Boise State's College Football Playoff Hopes Face Growing Threat from James Madison · Sports Illustrated, Oct 21, 2026
Broncos Move Up to No. 20 in AP Poll, Remain No. 22 in Coaches Poll · Boise State University Athletics, Oct 25, 2026
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: Boise State 1662 vs Texas State 1532 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Last 4 games, average margin: Boise State +18.0, Texas State +13.5.
- Model estimate: Boise State 81% / Texas State 19%. Market (vig removed): Boise State 79% / Texas State 21%.
- Spread: Boise State -11.5 · Total 63.5 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- Texas State 20-17 Utah State (Oct 24, 2026) Game Recap
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for College football: +2.5% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.