Model value
The pick
Odds as of Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET
Model lean: Boise State (Strong). At the locked price the estimated value is -0.8%. Value labels are switched off while the model has not beaten the betting market, so this is a lean, not a value pick.
Saved Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET. Locked picks are never edited or deleted.
Final result
Not graded yet. The final score and result appear here after the game, graded at the locked price.
Odds history
- Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET: pick locked at -600 (Bovada), model 85%, market 83%.
| Saved | Oregon State best odds | Boise State best odds | Model (Boise State) | Market (Boise State) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +310 | -400 | 78% | 77% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +310 | -385 | 78% | 76% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | +310 | -385 | 78% | 77% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +350 | -385 | 79% | 77% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +350 | -385 | 79% | 77% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | +410 | -455 | 82% | 80% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +410 | -500 | 82% | 81% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +410 | -500 | 82% | 81% |
| Nov 12, 2026, 9:13 PM ET | +520 | -600 | 85% | 83% |
| Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +520 | -600 | 85% | 83% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET.
ESPN's College GameDay Heading to Boise State for Oregon State Clash · Pac-12 Conference, Nov 8, 2026
College GameDay Returns to Boise State · Boise State University Athletics, Nov 8, 2026
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: Boise State 1677 vs Oregon State 1439 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Last 4 games, average margin: Boise State +13.8, Oregon State +8.2.
- Model alone: Boise State 80% / Oregon State 20%. Final estimate (model blended with the market): Boise State 85% / Oregon State 15%. Market (vig removed): Boise State 83% / Oregon State 17%.
- Spread: Boise State -14.5 · Total 63.5 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- Boise State Game Preview: Hear from Shephard, Dahlen and MacIntyre
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for College football: +2.5% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.