Model value
The pick
Not locked yet. The price available at lock time (about 36 hours before kickoff, or sooner if it becomes a value pick) is the one that grades the pick.
Odds as of Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET
Model lean: San Diego State (Underdog). At the current price the estimated value is -2.3%. Value labels are switched off while the model has not beaten the betting market, so this is a lean, not a value pick.
Final result
Not graded yet. The final score and result appear here after the game, graded at the locked price.
Odds history
| Saved | Utah State best odds | San Diego State best odds | Model (San Diego State) | Market (San Diego State) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | -125 | +104 | 47% | 47% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | -122 | +102 | 48% | 47% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | -120 | +105 | 48% | 47% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | -115 | +102 | 48% | 48% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | -127 | +120 | 45% | 45% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | -127 | +125 | 45% | 45% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | -132 | +125 | 44% | 44% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | -132 | +125 | 44% | 44% |
| Nov 12, 2026, 9:13 PM ET | -142 | +125 | 43% | 43% |
| Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | -142 | +125 | 43% | 43% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET.
Utah State Football Takes to the Road to Play San Diego State on Saturday · Utah State University Athletics, Nov 9, 2026
San Diego State Welcomes Utah State on Saturday for Senior Night · San Diego State Aztecs, Nov 9, 2026
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: San Diego State 1427 vs Utah State 1495 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Rest: San Diego State has 7 more days of rest.
- Last 4 games, average margin: San Diego State -12.5, Utah State +5.5.
- Model alone: San Diego State 39% / Utah State 61%. Final estimate (model blended with the market): San Diego State 43% / Utah State 57%. Market (vig removed): San Diego State 43% / Utah State 57%.
- Spread: San Diego State +2.75 · Total 42.75 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- This Week in Pac-12 Football - Week 11
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for College football: +2.5% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.