Model value
The pick
Odds as of Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET
Model lean: Texas State (Strong). At the locked price the estimated value is -1.6%. Value labels are switched off while the model has not beaten the betting market, so this is a lean, not a value pick.
Saved Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET. Locked picks are never edited or deleted.
Final result
Not graded yet. The final score and result appear here after the game, graded at the locked price.
Odds history
- Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET: pick locked at -360 (FanDuel), model 77%, market 75%.
| Saved | Fresno State best odds | Texas State best odds | Model (Texas State) | Market (Texas State) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +280 | -360 | 77% | 75% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +240 | -300 | 73% | 72% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | +280 | -335 | 76% | 75% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +295 | -335 | 76% | 75% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +296 | -320 | 77% | 75% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | +296 | -320 | 76% | 75% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +296 | -350 | 77% | 75% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | +296 | -350 | 77% | 75% |
| Nov 12, 2026, 9:13 PM ET | +295 | -360 | 77% | 75% |
| Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | +295 | -360 | 77% | 75% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET.
Fresno State vs. Texas State (Nov 14, 2026) Pregame · ESPN, Nov 8, 2026
How to Find TV Channel for Fresno State and Texas State College Football Game · Fresno Bee, Nov 11, 2026
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: Texas State 1563 vs Fresno State 1548 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Last 4 games, average margin: Texas State +15.5, Fresno State -0.2.
- Model alone: Texas State 72% / Fresno State 28%. Final estimate (model blended with the market): Texas State 77% / Fresno State 23%. Market (vig removed): Texas State 75% / Fresno State 25%.
- Spread: Texas State -9.75 · Total 59.5 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- Why Texas State's Defensive Stats Don't Reflect the Unit's Improvements
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for College football: +2.5% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.