Model value
The pick
Not locked yet. The price available at lock time (about 36 hours before kickoff, or sooner if it becomes a value pick) is the one that grades the pick.
Odds as of Oct 25, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Model pick: Fresno State (Underdog). At the current price the estimated value is -0.4%, below the +2.5% value bar, so it is not a value pick.
Final result
Not graded yet. The final score and result appear here after the game, graded at the locked price.
Odds history
| Saved | Oregon State best odds | Fresno State best odds | Model (Fresno State) | Market (Fresno State) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026, 4:45 PM ET | -235 | +215 | 32% | 32% |
| Oct 25, 2026, 5:00 PM ET | -235 | +215 | 32% | 32% |
| Oct 25, 2026, 5:10 PM ET | -235 | +215 | 32% | 32% |
| Oct 25, 2026, 5:13 PM ET | -235 | +215 | 32% | 32% |
| Oct 25, 2026, 5:20 PM ET | -235 | +215 | 32% | 32% |
| Oct 25, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | -235 | +215 | 32% | 32% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Oct 25, 2026, 4:45 PM ET.
Oregon State Emerges as College Football Playoff Challenger to No. 21 Boise State · Sports Illustrated, Oct 22, 2026
Fresno State Hosts Oregon State in Pac-12 Matchup · ABC30 Fresno, Oct 25, 2026
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: Fresno State 1555 vs Oregon State 1493 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Last 4 games, average margin: Fresno State +6.0, Oregon State +31.5.
- Model estimate: Fresno State 32% / Oregon State 68%. Market (vig removed): Fresno State 32% / Oregon State 68%.
- Spread: Fresno State +7 · Total 57.5 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- Oregon State Snaps Winless Streak with 2-0 Victory Over Fresno State
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for College football: +2.5% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.