Model value
The pick
Odds as of Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET
Model lean: James Madison (Lean). At the locked price the estimated value is -2.5%. Value labels are switched off while the model has not beaten the betting market, so this is a lean, not a value pick.
Saved Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET. Locked picks are never edited or deleted.
Final result
Not graded yet. The final score and result appear here after the game, graded at the locked price.
Odds history
- Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET: pick locked at -182 (FanDuel), model 63%, market 63%.
| Saved | James Madison best odds | UConn best odds | Model (UConn) | Market (UConn) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | None posted | None posted | 29% | No line |
| Nov 8, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | -134 | +124 | 44% | 44% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | -156 | +148 | 40% | 40% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | -152 | +148 | 40% | 40% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | -167 | +161 | 38% | 38% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | -176 | +161 | 38% | 38% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | -180 | +161 | 37% | 37% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | -180 | +161 | 37% | 37% |
| Nov 12, 2026, 9:13 PM ET | -182 | +163 | 37% | 37% |
| Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | -182 | +163 | 37% | 37% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET.
UConn’s Next Opponent James Madison ‘A Model of Consistency’ for Group of Six Success in College Football · Hartford Courant, Nov 11, 2026
Huskies Take on James Madison Saturday at the Rent · University of Connecticut Athletics, Nov 12, 2026
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: UConn 1456 vs James Madison 1671 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Rest: James Madison has 2 more days of rest.
- Last 4 games, average margin: UConn +1.8, James Madison +13.0.
- Model alone: UConn 32% / James Madison 68%. Final estimate (model blended with the market): UConn 37% / James Madison 63%. Market (vig removed): UConn 37% / James Madison 63%.
- Spread: UConn +4 · Total 57.25 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- UConn Football Can’t Use ‘Year One’ as an Excuse Against James Madison, Jason Candle Says
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for College football: +2.5% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.