Model value
MemphisLikelier to win
62%
Final estimate
62%Market implied
South Florida
38%
Final estimate
38%Market implied
The pick
No pick was saved before this game started.
Final result
Not graded yet. The final score and result appear here after the game, graded at the locked price.
Odds history
| Saved | Memphis best odds | South Florida best odds | Model (South Florida) | Market (South Florida) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | -250 | +210 | 31% | 31% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | -225 | +205 | 32% | 33% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | -200 | +180 | 35% | 36% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | -200 | +174 | 36% | 36% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | -188 | +181 | 36% | 36% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | -172 | +168 | 37% | 37% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | -172 | +160 | 38% | 38% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | -172 | +158 | 38% | 38% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET.
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: South Florida 1559 vs Memphis 1590 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Rest: Memphis has 6 more days of rest.
- Last 4 games, average margin: South Florida +9.2, Memphis +11.2.
- Model alone: South Florida 47% / Memphis 53%. Final estimate (model blended with the market): South Florida 7% / Memphis 93%. Market (vig removed): South Florida 8% / Memphis 92%.
- Spread: South Florida +5.25 · Total 51.25 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- Memphis @ South Florida Odds
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for College football: +2.5% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.