Model value
The pick
Not locked yet. The price available at lock time (about 36 hours before kickoff, or sooner if it becomes a value pick) is the one that grades the pick.
Odds as of Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET
Model lean: UTSA (Underdog). At the current price the estimated value is -1.9%. Value labels are switched off while the model has not beaten the betting market, so this is a lean, not a value pick.
Final result
Not graded yet. The final score and result appear here after the game, graded at the locked price.
Odds history
| Saved | North Texas best odds | UTSA best odds | Model (UTSA) | Market (UTSA) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | None posted | None posted | 53% | No line |
| Nov 8, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | -110 | -105 | 50% | 49% |
| Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | -104 | -103 | 50% | 50% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | -108 | -103 | 50% | 50% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | -120 | +107 | 47% | 47% |
| Nov 9, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | -121 | +108 | 47% | 47% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | -125 | +112 | 47% | 46% |
| Nov 10, 2026, 11:00 AM ET | -125 | +112 | 47% | 46% |
| Nov 12, 2026, 9:13 PM ET | -125 | +110 | 47% | 46% |
| Nov 13, 2026, 8:00 AM ET | -125 | +110 | 47% | 46% |
One snapshot is saved each time the model runs, before kickoff. Odds are the best price across sportsbooks at that moment. First snapshot for this game: Nov 8, 2026, 8:00 AM ET.
Rivals UTSA and North Texas Square Off Saturday in a Crucial American Conference Matchup · UT San Antonio Today, Nov 12, 2026
Mean Green Ready for Pivotal Road Game at UTSA · University of North Texas Athletics, Nov 10, 2026
Why this number & game details
- Power rating: UTSA 1574 vs North Texas 1611 (Elo-style rating from past results).
- Rest: UTSA has 2 more days of rest.
- Last 4 games, average margin: UTSA +0.8, North Texas +21.5.
- Model alone: UTSA 54% / North Texas 46%. Final estimate (model blended with the market): UTSA 47% / North Texas 53%. Market (vig removed): UTSA 46% / North Texas 54%.
- Spread: UTSA +2.5 · Total 76.25 (reference only; this model picks moneylines).
- 2026 Week 11 Preview: North Texas Mean Green @ UTSA Roadrunners
- News and injury reports are shown for context. They do not change the model's number yet, and betting markets usually price big injuries in already. Check official reports before relying on any number.
Value bar for College football: +2.5% estimated value. Which price counts: the "Pick locked at" price, not live odds.